I almost blew this keynote off; the description sounded lousy and boring. Glad I decided to see if it was worth while - this was the best keynote of the whole conference, and one of the better sessions.
John Gage introduced Geoffrey Moore, chairman of the Chasm Group. His topic was "Java Technology, Darwin, and the Survival of the Species."
Java is a mutation. It has gone through these phases:
parental rejection,
wasn't eaten by its parent,
became a species,
completes for resources, and
is at the mercy of natural selection.
Incremental evolution is typical; this results in no new species and no new food chain.
Individual markets form value chains. This is local, company vs. company competition. Value chains can compete against each other; this is market vs. market, like Visual Basic vs. Java.
Here is a picture that Geoffrey showed next to show how ideas progress through the market:
A value chain is only formed and profitable if the entire chain exists!. At this point, Java:
has a role in many markets,
is a successful product,
has a value chain developing in each area, but none are stable, and
must own markets.
Value chains are not run by better products. To be successful, value chains must be vibrant.
There are five states for a product:
innovation (techies),
early adopters (visionaries),
early majority (pragmatists),
late majority (conservatives), and
laggards (skeptics).
Pragmatists have the swing vote in the formation of value chains. You must focus on a niche market to gain pragmatists; this can get the herd moving. A mass shift of wealth and power occurs at the shift point - this is called the tornado. An installed base starts as the conservatives begin to buy into the value chain.
If you don't get a share of the market during the tornado, you don't get into the market.
A gorilla is a company that has market share way past the quality of the product. When there is only one standard (for example, Windows), we call the gorilla an enabling technology gorilla. If there is still competition, then we call it an application gorilla. To become an application gorilla, and therefore win 50%+ market share, you must:
Pick a vertical market
Sell to end-user management, not IT
Target broken, mission-critical process (start a fire)
Pull together a complete solution
Partner for the solution
Grow to adjacent niches
You must sell a product, not Java - Java is not important to customers. Service capability is where you add value; you must show a deep understanding of the business niche. Have a pre-engineered solution. Each partner should get a good return on their part in the enterprise. Here are some key rules:
